domingo, 19 de outubro de 2008

The Blue Sky Breakout


Mais um sistema simples de filtragem de dados que se pode adicionar no Prorealtime. Da mesma forma, colocarei as regras essenciais de trading deste setup após a colocação aqui do screener.

THE BLUE SKY BREAKOUT
Market Type This setup is best used in:
• Bullish: strongly trending markets

Key Indicators This setup relies on five price parameters
combined with one technical indicator: on balance volume
(OBV). Here are the rules:
• First, the closing price of the stock (not just the
intraday move) must register a new high
following a previous new pivot high set within
the past 20 trading days. A pivot high is a new
price high followed by a sell-off or sideways
consolidation of at least five bars (but not more
than 20) in length. We set these limits because it
is important that the new high be the result of a
recent and short-lived move in price rather than a
prolonged runup.
• Second, the current new closing price high must
be a significant high; no higher closing price high
should be recorded in at least the past three
months of trading.
• Third, the new closing price high cannot have
run too far above the 52-week low for the stock.
We don’t want stocks that are too overextended.
To prevent this, we calculate a multiple by taking
the new high closing price and dividing it by the
52-week low price. This multiple should not be
more than 3.0. In other words, if a stock’s 52-
week low is 10.00, we want to buy a blue sky
breakout only if the new closing high is less than
30.00.
• Fourth, the current breakout into blue sky
territory (no price resistance within the previous
three months) should be accompanied by the
highest OBV reading seen in at least the past
three months (see definition).
• Fifth, the candle on the day of the breakout to a
new high must be a green or white candle (close
higher than the open).
• Buy signal: When all five of these parameters have
been met on the same day, we have a buy signal.


The Screening Tool In a bull market, the following scan
should turn up several possible blue sky candidates—but
since that first price parameter cannot be screened for, a
further eyeballing of the charts is usually required to weed
out invalid setups:
• For the last market close:
• U.S. stocks with . . .
• New 52-week high.
• 20-day simple moving average of volume for today
is greater than 500,000.
• 60-day simple moving average of close for today
is greater than 10.
• Daily close for today is less than or equal to
minimum low over 260 days starting today
times 3.
• Daily OBV for today is greater than daily OBV
for 60 days ago.

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